Welcome to APVIA!
中文
APVIA

China TOPCon solar module prices ease after 4-week rally on silver pullback, holiday slowdown

Source：pv magazine

Chinese TOPCon module prices edged lower this week after four consecutive weeks of gains, as trading activity thinned ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays. Price adjustments were also driven by expectations of easing production costs following a recent pullback in silver prices, which have fallen by over 30% since hitting record highs in late January.

The Chinese Module Marker (CMM), the OPIS benchmark assessment for TOPCon modules from China, fell 1.68% on the week to $0.117/W FOB China, according to the OPIS Global Solar Markets Report released on February 3.

However, cost relief may prove short-lived. Several manufacturer sources noted shipment volumes for February and March are largely sold out, as buyers sought procurement ahead of the export tax rebate cancellation effective April 1. Market participants noted the removal of the rebate is expected to lift manufacturers' costs, providing price support from April onwards.

A top-10 module manufacturer said its production line is already operating at full capacity with February shipments fully allocated. The source added that several leading manufacturers are still currently subject to production and export quotas imposed by the regulators.

These production limits form part of the industry’s broader supply-side reforms, under which regulators assign quarterly output quotas to major producers in an effort to curb overcapacity and control aggressive price competition.

Another major manufacturer noted their March shipment volumes are fully booked, while module operating rates have been capped due to government-mandated production limits.

Market participants remain wary about committing to deliveries for the second half of 2026. Discussions for second-half module loadings are mostly limited to price indications rather than actual transactions, though some sources believe downstream prices are unlikely to return to 2025 levels given the prolonged period of higher input costs.

Meanwhile, Chinese TOPCon M10 cell prices were assessed 1.65% higher on the week at $0.0556/W FOB China. TOPCon cell prices rose this week on firmer indications, as market participants continued to assess the impact of a sharp decline in silver prices since last Friday.

Due to heightened volatility in silver markets, several trade sources have adopted a wait-and-see stance, opting to reassess the implications for production costs after the Lunar New Year holiday.

A top-10 producer said that while silver prices have dropped, most raw materials had already been secured via forward contracts. Another downstream producer noted that precious metal prices remain difficult to predict amid recent market disruptions, adding that silver is unlikely to retreat to 2025 price levels. While cell prices may soften, the source expects longer-term prices to remain supported.

According to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMIA), persistent high component prices, particularly silver, have kept cell production costs elevated. Weak overseas module orders have increased uncertainty around wafer and cell production schedules, suppressing short-term procurement demand.

On the supply side, leading producers have cut or halted output, tightening near-term supply and offering some price support. However, high inventory levels across the industry have not been meaningfully reduced, continuing to weigh on any sustained price recovery.

Market participants added that many production lines have been shut ahead of the Lunar New Year, limiting price discovery in the near term. As such, clearer price signals are expected to emerge only by late February.